Ukrainian officials drew on US intelligence to plan counteroffensive
Senior Ukrainian officials stepped up intelligence sharing with their American counterparts over the summer as they began to plan the counteroffensive that allowed them to make dramatic gains in the north-east in recent days, a shift that allowed the United States to provide better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses, according to US officials.
Throughout the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with information on command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in the Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians, who US officials acknowledge have played the decisive role in planning and execution, to target Russian forces, kill senior generals and force ammunition supplies to be moved farther from the Russian front lines.
But earlier on, US intelligence officials said they often had a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than of Ukraine’s. Concerned that sharing their operational plans could highlight weaknesses and discourage continued American support, the Ukrainians were closely guarding their operational plans even as US intelligence was gathering precise details on what the Kremlin was ordering and Russian commanders were planning.
But as Ukraine laid its plans to strike back against the Russians, senior leaders in Kyiv decided that sharing more information with the US would help secure more assistance, US officials said.
The gains in the north-east, including the recapture of Izyum, a key railway hub, were the most important advances Ukraine has made so far, senior US officials said.
“I have thought for several months that Ukraine was going to push Russia back to the 23 February lines by the end of the year,” said retired Lieutenant General Frederick B. Hodges, a former top US Army commander in Europe, referring to the eve of the Russian invasion.
“I watch the Russian logistics, and it just looked to me that they cannot sustain this. Their morale and discipline and all their manpower issues; it’s just not sustainable for them to do what they were trying to do.”
Current and former US officials praised the sophistication of the Ukrainian preparations for the counteroffensive. The decision by Ukraine to tout its counteroffensive in the south before striking in the north-east is a standard technique for misdirection used by US Special Operations troops who have been training the Ukrainians since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“These guys have been trained for eight years by special ops,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia in the Obama administration. “They’ve been taught about irregular warfare. They’ve been taught by our intelligence operators about deception and psychological operations.”
The offensive will strain the Ukrainians, who have suffered from shortages in supply, particularly artillery rounds. Their army, too, has taken tough casualties. Going on the offensive is harder and more difficult to maintain than a defence. Some US officials believe the more successful Ukraine is in the next few days, the more Russia will look for ways to strike back.
But the new offensive has demonstrated how the Russian forces have not been able to overcome the fundamental problems laid bare in the opening days of the conflict, US officials said.