Erdogan on course for election triumph

Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on course on Monday for a crushing runoff victory in two weeks’ time after coming within a whisker of winning Turkiye’s presidential election in the first round.

A final count showed that Erdogan had defied opinion pollsters and the worst economic crisis since the 1990s to win 49.5 percent of the vote, with his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu on 44.9 percent and nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan on 5.2 percent. Turnout was nearly 90 percent.

“A staggering win for Erdogan,” emerging markets economist Timothy Ash said. “He has the magic dust at these times. And he just gets Turks — the nationalist, socially conservative ones.”

Wolfango Piccoli of the consulting and advisory firm Teneo said: “Erdogan now has a clear psychological lead against the opposition. He will probably double down on his national security focused narratives over the next two weeks.”

Most analysts believe that Kilicdaroglu and his six-party opposition alliance will have a difficult time halting Erdogan’s momentum before the historic runoff on May 28.

Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy estimated the likelihood of an Erdogan victory at 80 percent.

“The results show that Erdogan and his allies successfully bolstered the incumbent’s support with strong messaging on terrorism, security, and family values — even as the economy continued to top voter concerns,” Peker said.

Erdogan supporter Hamdi Kurumahmut, 40, who works in the tourism sector in Istanbul, was brimming with confidence the morning after the most significant election in Turkiye’s modern history.

“Erdogan is going to win. He is a real leader. The Turkish people trust him. He has a vision for Turkiye,” he said.

“There are things that need to be improved on the economy, education or the refugee policy. But we know he’s the one who can sort all that out.”

As pollsters who had predicted a Kilicdaroglu victory began an investigation, political risk consultant Anthony Skinner said the result underscored the difficulty of trying to gauge public opinion in a strongly polarized nation of 85 million people.

“Many pre-election public opinion poll results did not reflect Erdogan’s resourcefulness and the degree of support he still enjoys in the country,” he said. “It just goes to show how careful one needs to be when looking at public opinion polls before elections.”