Russia is pouring new conscripts to the front line to try to halt Ukrainian advances
Russia is funneling newly drafted conscripts to the front line in Ukraine’s east, but so far, according to a Ukrainian general and Western analysts, the newly intensified attacks have proven ineffective, and high Russian casualties are expected.
Russia is pouring the new conscripts across the whole of the front line in an attempt to halt recent Ukrainian advances while rebuilding ground forces decimated during eight months of war.
After a chaotic mobilization in September, military analysts had predicted the deployment of Russian men to front-line areas through the autumn, with high numbers of casualties expected.
Russian forces are attacking in the east but on defense in the south.
Grisly videos filmed by Ukrainian drones showing Russian infantry being struck by artillery in poorly prepared positions have partly supported those assertions, as has reporting in Russian news media of mobilized soldiers telling relatives about high casualty rates.
The videos have not been independently verified, and their exact location on the front line could not be determined.
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander of the Ukrainian military, said in a statement on Thursday that Russian forces had tripled the intensity of attacks along some parts of the front.
He did not say what the timeframe was, or where the attacks were coming from.
Russian forces are staging up to 80 assaults per day, Gen Zaluzhnyi said in the statement, which described a telephone conversation with an American general, Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander in Europe.
“We discussed the situation at the front,” Gen Zaluzhnyi wrote.
He said he had told his US colleague that Ukrainian forces were beating back the attacks, “thanks to the courage and skills of our warriors.”
The attacks have been directed at several towns and villages, including Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
“Russian forces would likely have had more success in such offensive operations if they had waited until enough mobilized personnel had arrived to amass a force large enough to overcome Ukrainian defenses,” the institute said in a statement on Thursday.
The Ukrainian military’s estimates of Russian casualties are seen to be inflated, but the relative increase in the reported numbers suggests a rising toll.
On Friday, the Ukrainian military said more than 800 Russian soldiers had been wounded or killed over the previous 24 hours.
In its two counteroffensives in the north-east and the south, the Ukrainian military has reported step-by-step gains in cutting supply lines and targeting Russian ammunition and fuel depots with long-range rockets and artillery.
In the south, where Ukrainian troops are advancing towards the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, the Ukrainian military said on Friday morning that its artillery battalions had fired more than 160 times at Russian positions over the past 24 hours, but it also reported Russian return fire into Ukrainian positions.
With Russian and Ukrainian forces apparently preparing for battle in Kherson, and conflicting signals over what may be coming, the remaining residents of the city have been stocking up on food and fuel to survive combat.