East Asia faces increase in heatwaves, urgent need to adapt, study finds

Heatwaves are predicted to become more frequent and intense in East Asia with climate change, increasing the risks to human health and agriculture and creating an urgent need to develop strategies to adapt, scientists said in a recent study.

Heatwaves have been growing in severity and regularity worldwide, and a team of international researchers, led by Professor Kyung-Ja Ha from Pusan National University in South Korea, wanted to analyse the prevalence of two types of heatwaves in East Asia: hot and dry as well as moist and high humidity.

The idea was to figure out the areas most vulnerable to both types and investigate the likely impact of climate change in the coming decades.

“Heatwave events will become a much more common phenomenon in a warmer climate. And heatwaves have a devastating impact on human life, agriculture and water resources,” Prof Ha said.

“Identifying vulnerable regions can assist governing bodies in developing strategies that will mitigate the impacts of severe heatwaves.”

Using historical climate data, the team determined for the first time how and where these two types of heatwaves form and also predicted their occurrence in future under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Dry heatwaves are characterized by stable, hot and sunny conditions with low humidity. Moist heatwaves are often accompanied by very oppressive, humid conditions during the day and night, with heat trapped by clouds.

“We know hot and humid events can be more dangerous than hot and dry events,” Prof Ha said, adding that hot and dry events have a substantial effect on water resources and agriculture.

Temperatures of 35 deg C and above, when twinned with high humidity, are especially dangerous for people because the body is unable to lose heat easily, increasing the chances of heat stress or heat stroke.

According to the study, dry heatwaves occur mostly in north-western East Asia, mainly adjacent to desert regions in parts of northern China and Mongolia, while moist heatwaves are prevalent over southern East Asia, mainly southern China and Indochina.

Using computer model projections, the team found that heatwaves will become more frequent and longer lasting across East Asia in future, even if greenhouse gas emissions were kept to a minimum. If such emissions keep rising, the heatwaves would increase in severity.

The results come as record heatwaves have killed thousands across the northern hemisphere this year, including South Asia, China, Europe and the United States, triggering wildfires and exacerbating droughts.

The disasters have underscored the clear link to climate change, scientists say, as well as the growing risks from rising temperatures and the urgent need to adapt, such as providing more cooling centres for the vulnerable.

“This study intends to provide the precise heatwave information for planning for increased electricity use in places at risk of experiencing moist heatwaves and managing water supplies in regions susceptible to dry heatwaves. So adaptation policy for agriculture, water resources and human health will be more effectively applied,” Prof Ha said.

SOURCE: NEWS AGENCIES